Monday, June 11, 2012

US private employment the last decade





Essentially net job growth since January 2006 has been zero.  Over the same time period the country added population of roughly 30 million.
Methane hydrate technology fuels a new energy regime - The Globe and Mail

"In a joint announcement two weeks ago, the United States and Japan (along with ConocoPhillips, the U.S.-based multinational oil company) announced the world’s first successful field trial (in Alaska) of a technology that uses carbon dioxide to free natural gas from methane hydrates – the globally abundant hunks of porous ice that trap huge amounts of natural gas in deposits, onshore and offshore, around the world.

Methane hydrates constitute the world’s No. 1 reservoir of fossil fuel. Ubiquitous along vast stretches of Earth’s continental shelves, they hold enough natural gas to fuel the world for a thousand years – and beyond. Who says so? Using the most conservative of assumptions, the U.S. Geological and Geophysical Service says so.
The U.S. now produces 21 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas a year. But it possesses 330,000 tcf of natural gas in its methane hydrate resource – theoretically enough to supply the country for 3,000 years (give or take). Using less conservative numbers (for example, a methane hydrate resource of 670,000 tcf), the U.S. is good to go for 6,000 years (give or take)."

The resource appears to be reasonably accessible.

Friday, June 08, 2012

Massive overcapacity in multiple sectors


China’s Shipyards Fail to Win Orders as Greek Owners Shun Loans - Bloomberg

"Almost 90 percent of China’s shipyards received no orders this year and about 28 percent have secured none since the end of 2009, Clarkson Plc (CKN), the world’s largest shipbroker, said May 16. " 

"Owners are refraining from new orders after rates plunged and the combined capacity of oil tankers, container ships and commodity carriers reached a record. Earnings from the industry averaged the lowest since 1999 so far this year, according to the ClarkSea Index"


Friday, May 25, 2012

Possible Chinese financial crisis

An excellent article that explains in plain terms how the system has been working is Why China’s RMB exodus IS the story.

My interpretation is China could experience the same capital flight that triggered the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

"The problem the PBoC now has, however, is that its stock of yuan bills is growing quicker than its stock of US Treasuries. This has consequences for its ability to control the yuan-dollar peg.  If the situation worsens, and the dollar shortage gets more extreme, there will come a point where Chinese dollar liabilities will be stretched to the limit, and potentially defaulted upon."

That means the dollars the PBOC owes to domestic entities that traded the dollars they got from exports to the US into yuan they could use in China.

"What happens if foreigners decide the last thing they want is yuan exposure (due to China economic bubble fears), and would much prefer to keep hold of their US dollars? What happens if instead of a dollar inflow you get a mass capital outflow from China, with as many Chinese as possible converting yuan-denominated assets into dollars?"

If China chose to sell some of its Treasury holdings to meet the demand for dollars, that would be a problem for the US.

UPDATE: 

Cash Exiting China

"Domestic money in China will be the first to head for the exit - insiders will always know more than outsiders about the underlying economic conditions.  So the exodus of cash could indicate that the Chinese story is coming to a close - and that will have significant consequences for the global economy."

Monday, May 21, 2012

Germany's Eurozone bad debt illustrated

From Mish, a very plain illustration of  what the Eurozone situation is:  Germany is owed massive amounts by the rest of the countries.  We know that a sizeable proportion of the "assets" are worth a fraction of their face value.  The only way to get the trend lines to converge is haircuts on Germany's claims.  Of course, to propose this would be political poison for German leaders.