Friday, June 15, 2012

Japan's holdings of foreign assets a fiscal backstop


Japan Retains Status as Biggest Creditor Nation - WSJ.com

"TOKYO—Japan retained its title as the world's biggest creditor nation in 2011, as the government's currency-market interventions and companies' overseas mergers and acquisitions helped boost the value of the country's foreign-investment holdings.
Japan's net foreign assets—the difference between its holdings of overseas assets, such as currencies and U.S. Treasurys, and its liabilities, such as Japanese government debt held by foreigners—stood at ¥253.01 trillion ($3.19 trillion) at the end of 2011, data from the Ministry of Finance showed Tuesday."

Of course, the flow of funds into Japan from this asset base tends to strengthen the yen.

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Ratio of corporate profits versus wages


This metric is useful because it illustrates how the benefit of increased productivity is shared between capital and labor.  As the chart shows, the gains have been diverted to capital in recent decades.  A key factor has been the large increase in global labor supply as China, and India entered the global economic system.

I don't think that this metric includes health benefit compensation for workers; if that were included the ratio would be lower as health premiums increase significantly every year.

I also expect corporate profits to plunge in the near term as lack of consumer demand and massive overcapacity in multiple industries take effect, and just based on the chart the ratio appears to be poised for a plunge.  

Monday, June 11, 2012

US private employment the last decade





Essentially net job growth since January 2006 has been zero.  Over the same time period the country added population of roughly 30 million.
Methane hydrate technology fuels a new energy regime - The Globe and Mail

"In a joint announcement two weeks ago, the United States and Japan (along with ConocoPhillips, the U.S.-based multinational oil company) announced the world’s first successful field trial (in Alaska) of a technology that uses carbon dioxide to free natural gas from methane hydrates – the globally abundant hunks of porous ice that trap huge amounts of natural gas in deposits, onshore and offshore, around the world.

Methane hydrates constitute the world’s No. 1 reservoir of fossil fuel. Ubiquitous along vast stretches of Earth’s continental shelves, they hold enough natural gas to fuel the world for a thousand years – and beyond. Who says so? Using the most conservative of assumptions, the U.S. Geological and Geophysical Service says so.
The U.S. now produces 21 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas a year. But it possesses 330,000 tcf of natural gas in its methane hydrate resource – theoretically enough to supply the country for 3,000 years (give or take). Using less conservative numbers (for example, a methane hydrate resource of 670,000 tcf), the U.S. is good to go for 6,000 years (give or take)."

The resource appears to be reasonably accessible.

Friday, June 08, 2012

Massive overcapacity in multiple sectors


China’s Shipyards Fail to Win Orders as Greek Owners Shun Loans - Bloomberg

"Almost 90 percent of China’s shipyards received no orders this year and about 28 percent have secured none since the end of 2009, Clarkson Plc (CKN), the world’s largest shipbroker, said May 16. " 

"Owners are refraining from new orders after rates plunged and the combined capacity of oil tankers, container ships and commodity carriers reached a record. Earnings from the industry averaged the lowest since 1999 so far this year, according to the ClarkSea Index"