From the BEA's release:
"The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter "advance" estimates are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4). The fourth-quarter "preliminary" estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on February 28, 2007."
We won't know the real number until the final data are released in several months.
Also from the BEA's release: "Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: "Advance" estimates, based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency, are released near the end of the first month after the end of the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available, "preliminary" and "final" estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively. The "latest" estimates reflect the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions."
I suppose market activity based on the release of the advance estimate is due to either institutions reacting to their forecasts of the advance release and their analysis of historical revisions to the GDP number, or to people just reacting to the headline without taking a closer look at the data.
Wednesday, January 31, 2007
Teen discovers potential therapy for AIDS-associated disease
A 17-year-old Indian-American student at the Mississippi Institute of Mathematics and Science has identified a molecule that can inhibit the growth of a bacteria that causes a disease which can be deadly to people who have AIDS, cancer, or cystic fibrosis, according to a story posted at VOA News. According to the article, the student intends to publish her results to the public rather than seek a patent on her technology. The article quotes the student as follows: "If I were going to patent this, the rights would have to be sold to a pharmaceutical company, and that would greatly increase the cost of the drug once it's developed. So to prevent that from happening, by publishing it, the information becomes readily available and any company that wants to manufacture it, would be able to. So the price would be much lower due to competition and the people who need it most will have access to it."
Since Ms. Gavini has made her findings publicly available, I suppose there is nothing stopping any person from using her results to test the treatment on themselves. Now that I consider it, she could still earn some money from this work by coming up with a delivery system for this treatment and publishing a book on how to isolate the correct molecule and make a usable drug from it. I believe that a lot of folks would be willing to self-medicate if standard medical procedures aren't helping them.
This story is a nice reminder that you don't have to climb the academic ladder and get a position at a leading research institute to produce meaningful research. I suppose most Technocrat members have had some idea or other that you've dabbled with that you think might possibly become successful; I know I have a few projects on my wish list. Let's get doing something on those projects :).....
Since Ms. Gavini has made her findings publicly available, I suppose there is nothing stopping any person from using her results to test the treatment on themselves. Now that I consider it, she could still earn some money from this work by coming up with a delivery system for this treatment and publishing a book on how to isolate the correct molecule and make a usable drug from it. I believe that a lot of folks would be willing to self-medicate if standard medical procedures aren't helping them.
This story is a nice reminder that you don't have to climb the academic ladder and get a position at a leading research institute to produce meaningful research. I suppose most Technocrat members have had some idea or other that you've dabbled with that you think might possibly become successful; I know I have a few projects on my wish list. Let's get doing something on those projects :).....
Monday, January 29, 2007
RE: Why is New York declining vs London as a financial center
Here is a link to a paper that seems relevant to the subject titled "An American Perspective on the U.K. Financial Services Authority: Politics, Goals & Regulatory Intensity."
Written by a Howell E. Jackson of Harvard Law School in August 2005, the abstract states "Professor Jackson discusses deeper differences in the regulatory philosophies of the two countries and also presents data on the relative intensity of financial regulation in both jurisdictions. He speculates that the comparatively more ambitious regulatory agenda of the U.S. system pushes the country towards a more elaborate system of financial oversight that is inherently more difficult to consolidate. In the United Kingdom, in contrast, the goals of the financial regulators are more modest and, to the extent that cost efficiency is one of the country's regulatory objectives in the field of financial regulation, that policy tends to foster a less cumbersome system of financial regulation that more easily accommodates consolidation of regulatory functions. The paper concludes with some broader comparative data suggesting that while British financial regulation may be less intensive than financial regulation in the United States, it is substantially more intensive than financial regulation in many other jurisdictions, particularly civil law jurisdictions on the Continent."
My reading of the abstract is that UK regulators regulate less because at least in part the UK wants to spend less on regulation, and that UK regulators essentially know they are going to catch fewer cheaters. My opinion is that if a company avoids listing on US exchanges because US regulations will make it harder to obfuscate the true financial condition of the company, then that is a good thing.
Written by a Howell E. Jackson of Harvard Law School in August 2005, the abstract states "Professor Jackson discusses deeper differences in the regulatory philosophies of the two countries and also presents data on the relative intensity of financial regulation in both jurisdictions. He speculates that the comparatively more ambitious regulatory agenda of the U.S. system pushes the country towards a more elaborate system of financial oversight that is inherently more difficult to consolidate. In the United Kingdom, in contrast, the goals of the financial regulators are more modest and, to the extent that cost efficiency is one of the country's regulatory objectives in the field of financial regulation, that policy tends to foster a less cumbersome system of financial regulation that more easily accommodates consolidation of regulatory functions. The paper concludes with some broader comparative data suggesting that while British financial regulation may be less intensive than financial regulation in the United States, it is substantially more intensive than financial regulation in many other jurisdictions, particularly civil law jurisdictions on the Continent."
My reading of the abstract is that UK regulators regulate less because at least in part the UK wants to spend less on regulation, and that UK regulators essentially know they are going to catch fewer cheaters. My opinion is that if a company avoids listing on US exchanges because US regulations will make it harder to obfuscate the true financial condition of the company, then that is a good thing.
Wednesday, January 24, 2007
Athena Alliance apparently not interested in different opinions
I posted the following as a comment to the post titled "Declining US Brand" at the blog "The Intangible Economy" yesterday:
"The opinion of any non-American with regard to the US is based on the self interest of that individual, which is influenced by their home country's national interests, their religion, their educational experience, and many other factors.
I think that the USA should not formulate its foreign policies based on the public opinion of the rest of the world. Our foreign policy should seek to advance the national interest of our country. That is a fundamental principle of statesmanship. If the elected leaders of the US pursue policies that American citizens decide are in their own best interests and people in other countries do not understand or disagree with those policies, so be it."
Hardly inflammatory and not a profanity or expletive in sight. I surfed back over to "The Intangible Economy"
this afternoon to see if there had been any further discussion, and I found that my post had been deleted. Apparently Mr. Jarboe doesn't want any thoughts that disagree with his polluting his blog. Way to show your commitment to the marketplace of ideas!
"The opinion of any non-American with regard to the US is based on the self interest of that individual, which is influenced by their home country's national interests, their religion, their educational experience, and many other factors.
I think that the USA should not formulate its foreign policies based on the public opinion of the rest of the world. Our foreign policy should seek to advance the national interest of our country. That is a fundamental principle of statesmanship. If the elected leaders of the US pursue policies that American citizens decide are in their own best interests and people in other countries do not understand or disagree with those policies, so be it."
Hardly inflammatory and not a profanity or expletive in sight. I surfed back over to "The Intangible Economy"
this afternoon to see if there had been any further discussion, and I found that my post had been deleted. Apparently Mr. Jarboe doesn't want any thoughts that disagree with his polluting his blog. Way to show your commitment to the marketplace of ideas!
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
Materialism in vogue
The AP posted a story today that I noticed in the Deseret News titled "Wealth is a Top Priority for Youths." The key quote: "UCLA's annual survey of college freshman, released last Friday, found that nearly three-quarters of those surveyed in 2006 thought it was essential or very important to be "very well-off financially." That compares with 62.5 percent who said the same in 1980 and 42 percent in 1966, the first year the survey was done."
I find that to be a very interesting result given that it would be a fair statement to say that the country as a whole has shifted leftwards in the political spectrum between the year of the first survey and now.
A link to the UCLA survey....
I find that to be a very interesting result given that it would be a fair statement to say that the country as a whole has shifted leftwards in the political spectrum between the year of the first survey and now.
A link to the UCLA survey....
"Listen More": the world's message to the US?
Ken Jarboe flagged the results of a BBC story with the above title (I paraphrased) here. A key statement from the BBC story is "The global image of the US has significantly deteriorated over the past 12 months..."
The BBC story further says that "surveys suggest that there is still strong support around the world for the values enshrined in US society. But it looks as though America itself is seen to be living up to those values less and less."
The opinion of any non-American with regard to the US is based on the self interest of that individual, which is influenced by their home country's national interests, their religion, their educational experience, and many other factors.
I think that the USA should not formulate its foreign policies based on the public opinion of the rest of the world. Our foreign policy should seek to advance the national interest of our country. That is a fundamental principle of statesmanship. If the elected leaders of the US pursue policies that American citizens decide are in their own best interests and people in other countries do not understand or disagree with those policies, so be it.
The BBC story further says that "surveys suggest that there is still strong support around the world for the values enshrined in US society. But it looks as though America itself is seen to be living up to those values less and less."
The opinion of any non-American with regard to the US is based on the self interest of that individual, which is influenced by their home country's national interests, their religion, their educational experience, and many other factors.
I think that the USA should not formulate its foreign policies based on the public opinion of the rest of the world. Our foreign policy should seek to advance the national interest of our country. That is a fundamental principle of statesmanship. If the elected leaders of the US pursue policies that American citizens decide are in their own best interests and people in other countries do not understand or disagree with those policies, so be it.
Monday, January 22, 2007
The future of the city of Chicago
Bill Testa of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago has posted an analysis of this subject that raises several interesting ideas. One is that "As the business service center of the Midwest, serving regional markets and industries, Chicago companies’ prospects for growth are somewhat limited." Another is that "globalization of the economy has also brought new opportunities to populous information-based cities like Chicago."
Testa identifies opportunities based on the idea that "expanding global trade in goods, services, and capital requires the complex and specialized functions and industry sectors that are concentrated in large cities, including legal services, logistics, distribution, finance, insurance, business meetings, R&D, and professional business services. Chicago has been developing such sectors almost since its inception."
The question is whether growth in the sectors Testa identifies as opportunities will offset stagnancy or decline in Chicago's traditional strengths.
Testa identifies opportunities based on the idea that "expanding global trade in goods, services, and capital requires the complex and specialized functions and industry sectors that are concentrated in large cities, including legal services, logistics, distribution, finance, insurance, business meetings, R&D, and professional business services. Chicago has been developing such sectors almost since its inception."
The question is whether growth in the sectors Testa identifies as opportunities will offset stagnancy or decline in Chicago's traditional strengths.
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