Wednesday, October 31, 2007

US dollar now upside down vs Canadian dollar

Take a look at these two charts borrowed from Yahoo Finance:

This is noteworthy as Canada is one of the USA's largest trading partners and this exchange rate reversal is a first for the USD versus the Canadian dollar. The strength of the Canadian dollar has likely driven up US exports to Canada in the third quarter GDP number that was just reported.

I see the Fed's cuts as making sense primarily in terms of helping banks' cash margins by widening the spread on loans they have outstanding that aren't in default. Banks that might be on the edge of solvency could be pulled back from the brink of receivership depending on their size.

Even though the Fed Funds rate has been lowered, there's still the issue in the interbank market of counterparty risk. I don't recall if it was the Fed Funds rate or LIBOR but recently one day's intraday data showed a high of 15%. So there are still confidence issues.

I could see the Fed raising by a quarter point by the end of the year depending on what happens with GDP. I think Trichet of the EU still needs to raise given the data that Claus Vistesen points out over at Alpha Sources.

No comments: