It's time to take a look at where these markets are, thanks to the US government's analysis you can find at the link. I include here three charts that the EIA updates weekly:
The first thing that jumps out to me is that the crude oil stocks are now above the high end of the historical range for this time of year...that is a conundrum to me. Spot prices have been flat for a while, and now gasoline prices are finally going down. The EIA's analysis suggests we will see volatility in gas prices through the summer, noting that " in Ohio...retail regular gasoline prices have dropped by nearly 34 cents in just two weeks!" I'd like to see that in my state...
The EIA has noted that imports of gasoline as a share of all gas sold in the US have increased; it would seem to me that particularly the Gulf countries might have incentive to build gasoline capacity and increase exporting gas to the US at these prices. I doubt that the regulatory environment with respect to building refineries is as restrictive as of that in the US. Perhaps other countries could profit from gasoline production as well; one country that came to mind was Japan, which obviously has technical expertise and shipping expertise. They could import crude, refine it into gasoline and sell it in the US...
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