Friday, May 18, 2007

2006 employment significantly better than estimated

Thanks to Calculated Risk for pointing out that the BLS released revised data as follows:

The total nonfarm employment level for March 2006 was revised upward by 752,000 (754,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis). The previously published level for December 2006 was revised upward by 981,000 (933,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis).

Total employment was essentially a million jobs greater than we thought...that is huge. Current estimates have to be taken with a large grain of salt, as well, as giant revisions like these happen regularly. That's the problem with a lot of this government data; you have to wait quite a while to get the final numbers.

GDP will drop, possibly to a recession, in 2007 not because of a weak job market but because US consumers have overextended themselves on credit.

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