Thursday, May 24, 2007

Economic implications of NOAA weather outlooks for 2007

I see significant increased demand for electricity and water in the western US as the primary consequence of the forecasted weather conditions. Depending on reservoir levels, recreational activity could fall significantly as well. The forecasted improvement of drought conditions in the Southeast is at least partly due to the forecast of increased hurricane activity.

" Experts at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center are projecting a 75 percent chance that the Atlantic Hurricane Season will be above normal this year—showing the ongoing active hurricane era remains strong....For the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA scientists predict 13 to 17 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher." Destruction of property due to a hurricane could provide a minor boost to construction related industries.

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