Monday, May 21, 2007

An assessment of the Oregon housing market

According to the News-Review of Douglas County, OR, "Subprime loans, generally at higher interest rates, accounted for 17 percent of new mortgages in Oregon in 2006, down from 20 percent in each of the previous two years, according to First American LoanPerformance...Those percentages were below the national average each year by 4 to 6 percentage points, said Bob Visini, vice president of marketing for LoanPerformance of San Francisco." Further, "Among all outstanding mortgages nationally including those made decades ago, almost 15 percent are subprime, according to LoanPerformance data for December. In the Portland area, the comparable figure was 9.8 percent."

So Oregon is somewhat less vulnerable to the subprime crackdown, but not by much.

As far as the strength of the state's underlying economy goes, the University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators in March held steady at 106.2, based on a 1996 benchmark of 100. That is an annual average change of six tenths of a percent...that is a stagnant economy.


rubyfan said...

You've also got to include Alt-A as there are major problems there with Option ARM loans which will begin to reset in 2008 and increase in 2009, 2010. These are the loans that have been negatively amortizing as people just pay the minimum payment. Toxic.

Scott said...

Agreed--Credit Suisse’s ARM Reset Schedule shows that over $1 trillion dollars worth of adjustable rate mortgages will reset over the next 5 years....a majority of those mortgage debtors will likely wait until the last possible moment to do something about their oncoming train wreck...