Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Relationship between border apprehensions and economic growth

“A slowing US economy, resulting in fewer jobs, is discouraging immigrants from slipping into the United States, according to economists at Arizona State University in Tempe. In fact, falling border apprehensions may be an early predictor of where the economy is headed.

“If that’s true, then Americans should prepare for rough economic times ahead, says Dawn McLaren, a research economist at Arizona State’s business school.

“For the past decade, Ms. McLaren has been tracking the relationship between border apprehensions and economic growth. Every time apprehensions declined, the economy slowed about 12 months later, she found. “About a year before a recession, or a down cycle, there was a slowdown in the number of arrests” on the border.”

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